By David Codrea
Manasquan, NJ –-(Ammoland.com)- “Demographic Death’ of NRA Just Another Big Media Myth,” economist, author and Crime Prevention Research Center Founder and President John Lott writes in a “Perspective” piece for Investors Business Daily.
He’s addressing a Washington Post analysis by UCLA School of Law Professor and author Adam Winkler, which claims changing demographics will diminish the National Rifle Associations’ political influence.
We don’t know true gun ownership rates and how they have changed because we can’t rely on people admitting true gun ownership to pollsters, Lott argues. What we do know is “concealed handgun permits and gun sales have soared.”
We also see support for “gun control” has fallen in spite of currently experienced demographic changes, more people believing they are safer with a gun in the home, and a rise in urban gun ownership, including among blacks, Lott tells us.
So Winkler’s premise has been thoroughly discredited and he’s been soundly thrashed and unceremoniously sent packing, right?
I wish. And while Winkler’s conclusion (that NRA needs to get even squishier) reflects academic wishful thinking insulated from “We Will Not Comply” enforcement realities, the demographic threat he identifies that will enable legislative and judicial evisceration of government-recognized gun rights has been completely ignored in Lott’s rebuttal. Lott does not address growing anti-gun populations, particularly as reflected by Hispanics and Asians, who poll overwhelmingly (up to 80%) anti-gun and Democrat. Completely unmentioned are the effects tens of millions of legal immigrants and illegal immigrants given amnesty will have in conjunction with the “pathway to citizenship” being mapped out by vote-seeking Democrats and cheap labor Republicans.
In truth, by stating a reality the establishment would rather we not notice, Winkler has given us an unintended gift. Rather than rejecting his thesis outright, we ought to seize on it and use it to defend against the biggest threat facing gun owners: Politically-motivated policies encouraging massive immigration leading to citizenship.
The question Lott could have addressed, but did not, is how are all these people he and Winkler are talking about voting? Are “pro-gun” urban blacks shifting to the Republicans in significant numbers? When can we expect a majority? Ditto for Asians and Hispanics. Just because someone answers a gun poll question in a way generally favorable to gun ownership doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for anyone but Hillary. Besides, even Obama says he believes in the Second Amendment.
When the new citizens do vote Democrat, expect that to result in an unchallengeable majority. Expect federal courts where future confirmations will result in a reversal of Heller, which was only 5 – 4 in the first place.
Expect the only choices left to gun owners being to surrender and obey, or to assume the risks of civil disobedience.
Lott is more than capable of coming up with credible numbers to tell us why an unchecked tide of foreigners, coupled with a push to make them citizens, will not result in (politically) unbeatable Democrat majorities – something others can then test and validate. I wish he would, because, his “Debacle” co-author, NRA director and immigration proponent Grover Norquist, has instead focused on joining forces with Michael Bloomberg’s amnesty-pushing Partnership for a New American Economy.
There’s a reason why Bloomberg believes that will advance his interests. There’s a reason why the Department of Homeland Security under Obama is “turning foreigners into citizens as quickly as possible.” There’s a reason why Hillary vows she’ll go farther than Obama.
While Democrats are obviously behind an engineered infusion of new citizens in order to assure their ascendancy to power, NRA, which has reportedly spent millions of dollars alerting members to tangentially-related concerns that depart from its “single issue” when that serves its purposes, refuses to even mention immigration, let alone admit it’s a relevant concern. If they did, they would then have to reevaluate “A” ratings of establishment Republicans like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, and resultant downgrading could upset relationships. So it’s not surprising that a recent fundraising email warns “If we lose the Presidential election to an extremist anti-gunner like Hillary Clinton … our Second Amendment rights and our guns are as good as gone,” yet NRA won’t even bring up the major card Clinton and the Democrats are playing to “fundamentally transform” the electorate.
Unfortunately, many gun owners still appear to be dismissing Winkler outright simply because he’s a “progressive,” selectively ignoring polls they don’t like (while citing those they do), or offering anecdotes about seeing people from all demographics at gun stores, shows and ranges. There’s also no shortage of unsubstantiated opinions about how people will behave once they “taste freedom.” None of that addresses the questions that ultimately matter: How do ethnic and immigrant populations currently vote and what are the data-based probabilities the influx of immigrants is going to pull a major reversal?
Sure, some will turn out to be “pro-gun.” Some will even join NRA. But the overwhelming majority – according to all credible evidence – will vote to strengthen the other side. Based on what is observable, what will be the likely net effect to future laws and court decisions?
If anyone wants to take that on, including John Lott, Grover Norquist or an official spokesperson for the NRA, please share what evidence you have — not anecdotes, not opinions, not platitudes, but conclusions others can independently corroborate — that the new citizens being recruited by the administration will not be overwhelmingly supportive of Democrats, a party that includes “gun control” as part of its official platform. Because I would love to be able to stop worrying about this, admit I was wrong and apologize to all concerned for ever doubting them.
Just make sure your numbers account for what’s happened and is still happening in California.
About David Codrea:
David Codrea is the winner of multiple journalist awards for investigating / defending the RKBA and a long-time gun rights advocate who defiantly challenges the folly of citizen disarmament.
He blogs at “The War on Guns: Notes from the Resistance,” and also posts on Twitter: @dcodrea and Facebook.